Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.036283 0.041398 0.047013 0.053637 0.061249 0.069729 0.079908
2025-01-05 0.027093 0.033685 0.041592 0.051802 0.064673 0.080413 0.101197
2025-01-12 0.022443 0.029538 0.038569 0.050954 0.067579 0.089236 0.119771
2025-01-19 0.018769 0.025862 0.035329 0.048965 0.068231 0.094663 0.134001
2025-01-26 0.017228 0.024718 0.035148 0.050839 0.074044 0.107397 0.159515
2025-02-02 0.015977 0.023765 0.035026 0.052645 0.079793 0.120489 0.186961
2025-02-09 0.014922 0.022936 0.034929 0.054375 0.085492 0.133980 0.216490
2025-02-16 0.013541 0.021436 0.033622 0.054029 0.087820 0.142362 0.238711
2025-02-23 0.012502 0.020346 0.032811 0.054329 0.091129 0.152545 0.264965
2025-03-02 0.011399 0.019029 0.031482 0.053596 0.092566 0.159653 0.286605
2025-03-09 0.010761 0.018415 0.031238 0.054643 0.097120 0.172511 0.319929
2025-03-16 0.009936 0.017396 0.030199 0.054170 0.098877 0.180509 0.345086
2025-03-23 0.009535 0.017101 0.030419 0.056036 0.105213 0.197760 0.390524
2025-03-30 0.008622 0.015799 0.028726 0.054200 0.104393 0.201464 0.409720
2025-04-06 0.007942 0.014861 0.027600 0.053304 0.105255 0.208440 0.436327
2025-04-13 0.007182 0.013701 0.025953 0.051220 0.103508 0.209976 0.451572
2025-04-20 0.006985 0.013605 0.026325 0.053184 0.110212 0.229506 0.508318
2025-04-27 0.006789 0.013492 0.026650 0.055078 0.116954 0.249834 0.569478
2025-05-04 0.006595 0.013364 0.026928 0.056892 0.123706 0.270909 0.635115
2025-05-11 0.006198 0.012782 0.026226 0.056529 0.125606 0.281393 0.676901
2025-05-18 0.005897 0.012375 0.025851 0.056843 0.129059 0.295764 0.730056
2025-05-25 0.005524 0.011782 0.025029 0.056075 0.129919 0.304164 0.769277
2025-06-01 0.005336 0.011576 0.025027 0.057173 0.135301 0.323940 0.840507